The Nasty Index: Identifying the most unhittable pitches in baseball in 2011

Editor’s note- All PitchFX data was taken from BrooksBaseball‘s player cards and all charts are courtesy of TexasLeaguers. For a primer on PitchFX, go here or here.

Without further ado, here are the pitches which possessed the most nastiness in 2011:

10. Brandon League’s Sinker
Usage: 67.3  Velo: 96.4  vMOV: 3.19  hMOV: -9.83

This is a pitch that flies under the radar nationally. The reasons are obvious and twofold. The Seattle market in which League plays does not exactly lend itself to attention, and League is, atypically for a closer, not a high-volume strikeout guy. Don’t let the middling K/9 fool you though, League’s sinker is every bit as effective as the other offerings on this list. At an average speed of 96 MPH, you’d think this pitch could miss more bats, but with a whiff rate of 4.9 last season it’s obvious that inducing weak contact is more League’s style. And with opponents only hitting .250 and .278 on balls in play over the past two years, it’s worked out nicely.

9. Cole Hamels’s Change-Up
Usage: 25.1  Velo: 83.5  vMOV: -3.50  hMOV: -1.37

Despite not even being the best left-hander on his own team, Hamels has emerged as one of the top southpaws in baseball. His primary out pitch is a devastating change that runs down and away from right handed hitters. Hamels induced a swing on 60 percent of his change-ups last year, with nearly half of them resulting in a whiff. And even when hitters did manage to make contact, they were lucky to get it out of the infield; Hamels posted a career-best 52 percent GB rate in 2011, good for 14th best among qualified starters.

8. Aroldis Chapman’s Fastball
Usage: 79.5  Velo: 98.1  vMOV: 10.66  hMOV: 4.16

The only thing holding back the Cuban Missile’s 100-plus MPH fireball is his ability to harness it. When Chapman was able to find the zone with this pitch in 2011, the best case scenario for most batters was to merely foul it off. Chapman’s four-seamer generated a swing 44 percent of the time, with only 11.2 of those pitches being put in play.

With good reason, Chapman relied on his electric fastball for nearly 80 percent of his total pitch count last year. Among pitchers with a minimum 50 IP in 2011, only the White Sox’ Matt Thornton, the Pirates’ Joel Hanrahan, and the Angels’ Jordan Walden relied more heavily on their heater.

7. Tim Lincecum’s Change-Up
Usage: 14.5  Velo: 83.6  vMOV: 2.88  hMOV: -1.91

Timmy used his change sparingly last season, but when he did decide to pull the string, it usually resulted in a swing and a miss. I suppose it should not be a surprise to anybody that Lincecum’s change was able to force so many whiffs last season — his career whiff rate with the change-up is nearly double the league average. But it is notable that despite the gradual decline in his fastball velocity over the years, Timmy’s off speed offerings remain as deceptive as any in the league.

6. Jonny Venters’ Slider
Usage: 20 Velo:  86.1  vMOV: -2.75  hMOV: -1.96

With his devastating sinker-slider combo, it’s easy to see why Atlanta’s lefty set-up man led the majors in ground ball rate last season. Three-quarters of the time Venters is pound his 95 MPH power sinker down in the zone. The rest of the time, he’s sweeping his slider across the plate, forcing a ton of swinging strikes with the sharp downward motion. Batters whiffed on 35 percent of all swings against the pitch last season, and they were only able to put it in play on a paltry 5 percent of those swings.

5. Roy Halladay’s Two-Seam Fastball
Usage: 15.2  Velo: 91.1  vMOV: 3.65  hMOV: -9.73

You already know Halladay is one of the best in the business, but it was hard to narrow down one individual pitch that stands apart from the rest of his repertoire. He used all five of the pitches classified by PitchFX last season (4-seam FB, 2-seam FB, Cut FB, Curve, Change) at least 15% of the time. While the two-seamer was the least thrown of his arsenal, it was arguably the most effective due to the extreme amount of arm side run which made it a deadly ground ball pitch in double play situations. You can tell by looking at the location chart below, which faces away from home plate, how frequently Doc ran the two-seamer (FT) in on the hands against right-handed hitters.

4. CC Sabathia’s Slider
Usage: 26.8  Velo: 81.7  vMOV: -0.70  hMOV: -2.14

Other than the fastball, this was Sabathia’s preferred weapon with which to attack hitters. With it’s tumbling action down and away from lefties, this is a devastating strike out pitch.  But right-handers were victimized just as often by CC’s slide piece, thanks to his ability to spot it on either corner.

3. Craig Kimbrel’s Power Curve
Usage: 30.4  Velo: 86.8  vMOV: -6.67  hMOV: 4.78

PitchFX classifies it as a slider, but as Ben Duronio notes at CapitolAvenueClub, Kimbrel himself calls it a curve. Whatever it is called, the 24 percent whiff-rate and the 10 percent balls-in-play rate make “unhittable” the perfect adjective to describe it.

2. Justin Verlander’s Fastball
Usage: 47.4  Velo: 95.1  vMOV: 9.89  hMOV: -7.30

What separates Verlie’s fastball from the mere mortals of the MLB pitching ranks is its superior movement and control. For comparison’s sake, look at Edwin Jackson, who, like Verlander, had one of the highest average fastball velocities in the league, but threw it much straighter:

The difference is apparent by how many hitters put balls in play against the two respective fastballs. Verlie’s extreme arm side run made his fastball nearly impossible for batters to barrel, while Jackson’s — just as fast but with less tailing action — was put in play at a rate well above league average. The lesson, as always: It doesn’t matter how hard you can throw, if it’s straight and over the plate, it’s gonna get touched by major league hitters. Since Justin Verlander’s fastball is seldom either, and never both, it very rarely gets touched by major league hitters.

1. Clayton Kershaw’s Slider
Usage: 24.6  Velo: 83.6  vMOV: 1.13   hMOV: -4.06

How ridiculous was Kershaw’s slider last season? Not only did it have more negative sideways movement (meaning it ran inside to right-handed hitters, or away from lefties) than any other qualified starter, but it had nearly twice that of the next two highest, Jaime Garcia (-2.4) and Sabathia (-2.1). Drawing whiffs at a 22 percent clip last season, this is clearly the reigning NL Cy Young’s go-to pitch when he needs a K.

Honorable Mention: Jason Motte’s slider, Clay Buchholz’s Change-Up, Felix Hernandez’s Sinker, Cliff Lee’s Change-Up, Dan Haren’s Cut Fastball